5 April 2019 | 21 Comments
A few days ago I learned from creator Gil Hova about a Kickstarter tool that I had never heard of. It’s run by BackerKit, and it’s called BackerTracker.
The basic idea is that you can look up any Kickstarter project and see a fairly accurate trendline as to the total amount the project will raise by the end of the campaign.
BackerTracker’s trendline seem to be based on a wealth of data and a core understanding that the first few days of a Kickstarter campaign aren’t indicative of all other days. This helps a creator have realistic expectations about their projects. In fact, whenever I launched Kickstarter projects, I would disable my Kicktraq Chrome extension during the campaign, as it was giving me delusions of grandeur.
Accurate trend tools also prevent backers from dismissing a project if the trendline makes it seem like the project will vastly overfund (“They must not need my help.”) I could also see it helping on projects that are trending towards successfully funding despite a slower start.
If you use Chrome, I highly recommend installing the BackerTracker extension. While I will certainly continue to use Kicktraq’s website, the precision of the BackerTracker trendline is more compelling for me.
For example, below you’ll see the current Kicktraq chart for the Tantrum House season 6 campaign. It’s showing that the campaign is trending towards $68,135 because of the strong launch day.
Since the first day, however, the campaign has raised about $2k, $1k, and another $2k. That’s still great, though it means that Kickstraq’s $68,135 trend is likely off by a significant amount. It’s much more likely that the BackerTracker trend of $25,668 will be close to the final amount, as shown below:
As both Kicktraq and BackerTracker will probably point out, trends are not predictions. But that doesn’t stop creators or backers from treating them as such. That’s why I’m advocating the use of BackerTracker today.
Are there other reasons why you think accuracy matters to creators and backers in regards to statistical tools like these? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.[Update: Alert reader Ivo mentioned another service called BiggerCake that I also hadn’t heard of. They actually do make a prediction about the campaign results, and they also offer a Chrome extension.]
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