A few days ago, we launched preorders–in the traditional sense, before production begins–for the third printing of the Wingspan Nesting Box. So far we’ve received 2150 preorders, and today I’m going to dig into the logistics, pros, and cons of this experiment.
For quick context (described in detail in The Great Nesting Box Debate and later in It Isn’t Too Late), over the last 5 years, our method of launching new products has been to make the product, ship it to fulfillment centers and distributors, and then within a span of about a month, reveal the product, launch it on our webstore, and ship it to customers.
Most customers seem to really like this method, particularly since their personal funds aren’t tied up for months or years. Plus, it’s fun to hear about something new, get excited about it, and have it in your hands within a short timeframe.
However, as we experienced with the Wingspan Nesting Box, there are also some customers who prefer the traditional preorder method. The reasons vary: they’ve grown accustomed to crowdfunding projects, they prefer to “set it and forget it,” and/or they want to ensure that they don’t miss out on the first/latest printing of the product.
So after the first printing of the Nesting Box (10,000 units made in advance, sold out very quickly in early November) and the second printing (around 2,000 available units that were wrapping up production in mid-November when we put them up for preorder), we decided to experiment with a true preorder for the third printing in addition to our standard method of making quite a few units for those who want to wait until the product is in stock.
Here are some notes about what we considered and executed to make this possible, roughly in chronological order:
- Our web developer, Dave H, had to ensure three crucial things: One, that each preorder would have a tag to inform fulfillment centers that they should ignore the order for now (as the product won’t be in stock for around 6 months). Two, that customers could manually change their addresses as they wish over the next 6 months (we’ll send a reminder to preorder customers when we’re close to shipping). Three, that customers cannot preorder using PayPal, as PayPal’s policies state that a company cannot accept PayPal payments for orders that are shipping so far in the future (if you normally use PayPal, you can instead use a debit or credit card, or even purchase a gift card on our webstore and then use those funds to make the purchase).
- Our retailer/distribution duo of Alex and Susannah created and communicated a plan to accept preorders for the Nesting Box from distributors before production begins. Their creativity helped us find a middle ground that allows us to offer such a high-cost item to distributors and retailers in such a way that all parties can have some profit without resulting in a massive price to end-consumers.
- Our communications and customer relations team (Joe and Dave D), prepared for customer questions and for the increased chances of cancellations over the next 6 months (as fellow crowdfunders know, the longer you make customers wait, the more customers will cancel the products you made for them).
- We launched the preorder on January 4. I notified Stonemaier Champions, general newsletter subscribers, and the 5300+ people who signed up for a back-in-stock notification. That last number is particularly notable as compared to the number of people who have actually preordered the Nesting Box so far (2150 units).
- In a few days we’ll compile the direct preorders and distributor preorders to begin production with Panda. This is where things get tricky, as we’ll need to use the information we have to extrapolate (a) the additional preorders we’ll receive over the next 6 months and (b) the additional orders we’ll receive after that (mostly from customers, but also some direct retailers). The infinite nature of a preorder becomes finite the minute you start production–this is why crowdfunding is only marginally better than any other data-driven estimate of print run size.
- Production will take around 4 months, then 1-2 months for freight shipping, followed by fulfillment. This preorder method is both good and bad for freight shipping. It’s good because we have more precise knowledge of how many units to send to our fulfillment centers in the US, Europe, Australia, and Canada. It’s bad because freight shipping prices could be vastly different in 4 months than they are now (which is bad for us if those costs increase and bad for preorder customers if the costs decrease).
So many factors to consider! But I’m happy to serve customers in the way they want to be served–I just didn’t realize quite how many people preferred this preorder-before-production method. We will also likely offer this option on a new game in the near future for those who want it (small reveal and open preorder with limited information), though our primary focus will remain on our typical method of the full reveal, launch, and fulfillment within a short timeframe after freight shipping is complete.
As noted in #5, the big question in the next few days will be how many Nesting Boxes to make in the third printing. Assuming the direct preorders and distributor preorders total around 4000 units, how many total units do you think we should make? You can note your guess in the comments, and I’ll follow up later this year with what the “correct” number turns out to be.
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25 Comments on “The Nesting Box Preorder Experiment”
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Will you guys have MORE of these available? We still can’t get one and we signed up back at GenCON and never got notified about another preorder ..
We started the reprint a few weeks before Gen Con, and it’s been in production ever since–you didn’t miss a notification. You’ll get a notification when it’s back in stock, which should be by the end of 2023 (as indicated here: https://stonemaiergames.com/games/wingspan/wingspan-nesting-box/). Thanks for your patience!
Before reading existing comments, I would have said 10,000 but that’s more to have a round number and because I don’t know where the scale break-points are. Having seen that the point of diminishing returns for economies of scale is around 4k copies, I can see going lower, so I’m going to go for 8,000 copies. The obvious X-factor in the whole thing is how close to saturation the market is – once you approach the point where everyone who is interested in the Nesting Box has had the chance to buy one, I imagine there’d be a sudden crash in demand down to a background level from people discovering the game.
As for what drives interest in pre-orders, while I agree that the ideal scenario for most people would be to learn about something they want, pay for it immediately, and have it in their hands within about a week, when someone hears about a product months in advance, there are two scenarios: a) they have to wait months before they’re able to pay for it, meaning they have to remember about it, and possibly set aside a portion of budget earmarked specifically for it; or b) they pay for it immediately and can then forget about it until it arrives months later.
While the former is generally better for their bank balance, it does impose demands on their time and focus – there’s that lingering incompleteness over the transaction until they get to complete their side of it; the latter may mean they have less money to use for the intervening months, but it does also mean they don’t have it lingering on their TODO list.
I’ll probably go with 8000 units, if storage is not a problem. Enough to satisfy the demand of all 5300 people who subscribed for a back-in-stock notification, but not too much product lying around if that doesn’t happen.
If you do decide to do the pre-order method for an upcoming game, will you try to get prototypes into reviewers/previewers hands during the pre-order period?
Great question, Mary. We want reviewers to review the final version of the product, not a prototype, so reviews would not be available until the standard time (after the full reveal, very close to the launch).
my guess (which you should not trust) is roughly 1.5 people out of 100 get everything for a game so I would say 2 print runs of 6000 over the next year should be close.
I guess somewhere between 6000 & 8000. I’m in the category of definitely keen to pre-order but finances will prevent me from doing so before you start production.
I appreciate all your efforts! My nesting box arrived just this weekend. I would be happy to preorder any other big boxes you have. Thinking the wine crate and the big scythe box. I might be asking for too much. Admittedly, Wingspan is your most popular game, hands down. Again, appreciate all the hard work!
Thanks Wendy! For most products, we don’t seem to run into issues of immediately selling out of our inventory upon arrival, so in general for reprints we’d prefer to wait until they arrive before we ask for your money. The wine crate is due to arrive quite soon, and the Legendary Box just started a new print run. Make sure to sign up for back-in-stock notifications! :)
Who likes waiting 6 months to get a product they needed last month? I’m not buying that BS story…
Feel free to read the comments of the previous posts I linked to; there you will see some people saying that they would have preferred to preorder the Nesting Box before production began. I can’t tell if you’re doubting me or doubting them, but either way, I’m relaying actual information shared with me publicly by actual people.
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I think the minimum should be 1.5 the number preordered and definitely no higher than 2.0, it seems that the demand is there to be able to sell the extra units quickly.
I wonder how this would work for a new game, is the Nesting Box more difficult to produce than your average game or for a game it would be shorter than 6 months? Also, will you do small reveals each month until you are ready to ship or would you just do one reveal at that point?
It’s great that you are always willing to try new things and see if they work!
That’s along the lines of what I’m thinking too. The Nesting Box is a little more difficult to make than most of our games.
As for the new game we might try this with, I’m currently thinking that I’d share the box front, components list, teaser trailer, and maybe/probably the rulebook up front, then share a few specific component teasers with updates every month for subscribers and preorder customers. The rulebook is the one aspect I’m debating, but I lean towards sharing it up front so people know what the game is.
Unless there’s a big uptick in actual preorders in the next few days, I think I would order about 5000. This is essentially double the preorder, and enough to cover the people who signed up for “back in stock” notifications, even if they didn’t follow through with an actual preorder.
It’s double the direct preorder, but I’m expecting around 2000 orders from distributors. So only 1000 more on top of the 4000 total from direct and distributor preorders?
Ah, I hadn’t accounted for the Distributors. I figure the Distributor orders will be much more accurate and won’t need as much buffer. So I would say to double the direct preorders and keep the Distributor number the same or close to it. So maybe 2x direct orders but only 1.1x distributor orders.
I would print only an about 500 more to cover the inevitable boxes that get smashed prior to delivery and to have some in stock for late orders. I would not want to be stuck storing a bunch of empty boxes that didn’t sell. Question: does your experience with the Scythe big box help in figuring out what to do with Wingspans?
Thanks Karen! I agree that a buffer is always helpful (it also helps that the Nesting Box is pre-packaged quite securely–we’ve only had a few damaged copies arrive out of 10,000 so far).
500 units to sell over the next 8 months doesn’t seem like nearly enough to me, though.
It does help a little bit to have the data about the Scythe Legendary Box.
Was going to guess 2000 more then the pre-order total, so assuming that’s 4k,total of 6k.
Basically your initial reprint run on top,I wonder what the economy of scale is versus 3 runs of 2k are?
Sean: Great question about economies of scale. For a product like this, once we reach 4000 or 5000 unit, the cost decrease as we make more is very, very small.
Would having X number of units ready at launch, and then taking preorders immediately following the moment you sell out of that number, be doable in the future? Satisfy both types of customers at once, essentially.
Joshua: It’s certainly possible, though I’m not sure it actually satisfies both types of customers. With the Nesting Box, I kept hearing from people that they didn’t like that they missed out on the first printing and had to wait for a future printing. I think the types of people who want to preorder in advance want to do that at least partially so they get the first printing–they’re early adopters.
Ahh, that’s a fair point and a bit unfortunate that it’ll be tough to appease both sides.
5000